Basketball and gambling have more in common than you may think. So as to succeed at either pursuit, it helps to have a proven system. In the case of basketball, having a reliable offensive strategy that you can roll out every game regardless of the matchup gives you a leg-up. Believe Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace attack or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll crime in the 1980s and 90s.
If it comes to betting, you can acquire the same sort of benefit by having a tightly defined set of principles that you can use to every single game regardless of who is on the court.
Fortunately, you don’t need to create your own betting system from scratch. There are already several established strategies that you can try on for size once you lay down wagers on your favourite teams, and there is no rule against pilfering in the playbooks of those who came before you. We have included a number of the most reliable systems and money-management approaches below, together with insights about how best to use them. When combined with an understanding of the sport, these systems can help turn even rookie betters to all-stars.
The Top Totals System
Few strategies are easier to understand and use in relation to the Top Totals System made by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and also the author of Becoming a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks frequently underestimate game totals for NBA non-conference games, and started taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a simple approach, but it paid off as he was correct 63.5percent of the time for many games meeting that standards from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those kinds of games were rarities a decade before, but they are getting more common today as groups push the pace and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points per match. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and rose all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have gotten savvy to this trend, but there’s still worth to be found by taking the over in games with particularly high total-point projections.
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